It’s no secret that I voted against President-elect Donald Trump. I’ve said so in this column. I wasn’t enthusiastic about Kamala Harris, but I voted for her. So it’s a difficult time for me and almost half the country.
It’s tempting to continue criticizing Trump, but what’s the point? I’m tired of the moaning and groaning and predictions of disaster. Better to start making plans for what to do next.
It’s not just the federal election. Joy or despair varies among supporters of candidates for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, the state House, the state Senate and the Grant County Commission. Grant County’s reputation as Democratic territory is in question, although we did support Kamala Harris over Trump by 5 points.
I’ve been through this before. In fact, most people of middle age or older have seen electoral disappointment. There was the frustration of the Supreme Court interrupting the vote count in 2000. There was the shock of Trump’s win in 2016. I’m sure others were disappointed with Barack Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012, and Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
But this election seems weightier due to Trump’s threats of retribution and promises to change everything. Some critics, including me, wonder if democracy is at stake. Trump showed authoritarian tendencies before, and they may be worse the second time. Or maybe that’s just talk. His first administration was chaotic, but not as bad as I expected.
It reminds me of George W. Bush’s win in 2004. How could he win with a significant margin when he had screwed up the war so much — in my miserable opinion? My unrealized fears were so bad that I seriously considered leaving the country. But to where?
I’m fond of Silver City’s climate and geography, so I looked for a similar home. Would I prefer Libya, Israel, Iraq, Iran or Afghanistan? None of the above. How about Chile, Argentina, South Africa or Australia? Well, I was kind of interested in Australia and Chile, but I decided to stick it out as an American.
Well, things got better, then worse, then better, then worse. And now I’m making the same decision again. To quote U.S. Sen. Carl Schurz in 1871, “My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.” A thin majority of my fellow Americans think it’s already right, in both senses.
But history has a way of surprising us. And I got a pleasant surprise this week when my stock and bond investments went way up. Do other investors think the second Trump administration will be great economically? Or are they just relieved that the election is over? I’m just lucky, unlike many Trump voters, to have investments to go up.
There are some silver linings. Trump says he wants to cut taxes. That will be nice for those of us with income to be taxed. It’s time for businesses to start doing some things and holding off on others depending on proposed tax implications.
Everybody likes lower taxes, but tax cuts without comparable spending cuts (as in the first Trump administration) will increase the deficit. Most economists believe there is a point where deficits will cause major problems — such as inflation. They just don’t agree on where that point is.
As for health insurance, let’s just say if you were thinking of having a major illness, now is a good time, while Obamacare is still in effect. Of course, if you believe in “concepts of a plan” that will be cheaper and better, you can wait to get sick.
Does Trump really mean what he says about tariffs? If you believe, like most economists, that high tariffs will increase the price of half the stuff at Walmart, this is the time to buy all the phones, computers, TVs and other foreign goods you might need. Or if you’re a contrarian like Trump, wait for the jobs coming home to cut prices and raise wages.
If, like me, you have contemplated installing solar panels or buying an electric vehicle, buy it now. Trump opposed the Inflation Reduction Act, and may undo federal tax credits for anything green. In fact, maybe you should have already installed those solar panels.
What effect will the end of green investment have? Will it mean more hurricanes, wildfires and flooding? Or is the carbon apocalypse just another myth?
One thing’s for sure. The climate doesn’t care whether we believe it’s changing or not. The law of supply and demand doesn’t care about our economic opinions. Natural process will continue regardless of our beliefs or votes. Chance and chaos will undermine well-laid plans.
Time will tell who laughs last.
